REFLECTOR:Accident History

Phil Hooper reflector@tvbf.org
Tue, 22 Jul 2003 11:02:51 -0700


You!

-----Original Message-----
From: reflector-admin@tvbf.org [mailto:reflector-admin@tvbf.org] On Behalf
Of Chuck Jensen
Sent: Tuesday, July 22, 2003 11:09 AM
To: 'reflector@tvbf.org'
Subject: REFLECTOR:Accident History

It's probably totally impractical but it'd certainly be interesting and
useful if the major kit makers would each voluntarily submit an accounting
of their planes flying, accident history (broken down to test flying, first
50 hours, and thereafter, etc.), severity of injury/fatalities, and damage
to planes.  Yes, some of the information is available on the NTSB but we
want/need more information to understand what is happening, why it's
happening and to whom.

Statistical analysis is a wonderful thing and can be enlightening.  This
isn't about bashing one particular manufacturer or gaining a competitive
edge over another kit builder; this is about saving hardware and lives.  For
that, competition can be set aside.

I think Velocity's undertaking of Condition Inspections and Pilot Checkouts
is an example of such analysis, even though it may have been anecdotal and
informal.  A systemic weakness was identified and steps were taken to
correct.  It's hard to quantify how many planes are in one piece and how
many pilots are healthy because of the hardware and piloting defects that
were detected and corrected.

Everyone would benefit from a common depository of this information.  If
2-place Lancairs are hot rods and have a high fatal accident rate, a
depository would help Lancair identify and analyze the problem.  Perhaps
better pilot checkout in some aspect of the flight regime, that has been
shown to be a problem, would help.  Or perhaps Lancair could decline to
recommend a power plant for this plane over a certain HP. Or even a
particular power plant in a particular plane.  Even if a particular problem
applies to a different brand/model aircraft, we could all appreciate the
shortcomings and avoid going there, either in building, testing or flying.  

That's what lessons-learned are all about.  The Technical Advisor (TA)
program is an example of an effort to disseminate information and experience
more widely.  A depository of kit accident histories would serve the same
purpose for all of us.

Of course, as these data get broken down into smaller and smaller subsets
for study, we lose the macro view and the usefulness of statistical analysis
degrades and subjective conjecture starts playing a greater part in drawing
conclusions.  Nonetheless, data that is statistically thin is still better
than no data.  

The whole Experimental community, kit manufacturers, builders and pilots all
have a lot of money and lives at risk.  We can't afford to be on the front
page of the local newspaper and the bad publicity that goes with it.  The
stakes are so high that even competitors should be able to agree to
cooperate.

Okay, now that that's settled, who's going to volunteer to gather and
collate all the data?

Chuck
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